学术预告 | 国金学术研讨会第316期
主讲人： 郭宇辰 香港中文大学-加州大学圣地亚哥分校中国经济联合实验室博士后研究员
主讲题目：同伴如何影响内战阵营选择
时 间：2026年4月22日（周叁）上午10:00
地 点：中山大学珠海校区海琴6号础426
主持人: 李腾 教授
主讲人介绍
郭宇辰，香港中文大学-加州大学圣地亚哥分校中国经济联合实验室博士后研究员。主要研究领域为数字经济、量化历史研究与政治经济学，尤其专注于将大规模文本与图像数据等大数据方法应用于经济学研究。在PNAS, PNAS Nexus, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, China Economic Review, 《经济学（季刊）》《世界经济》等国内外重要学术期刊发表/录用论文十余篇。曾获中国青年政治学论坛优秀论文二等奖等学术荣誉、第十二届全国财政学/公共经济学博士生论坛优秀论文奖，并获国家留学基金委奖学金资助赴加州大学圣地亚哥分校联合培养。
讲座内容
Do social networks and peer influence shape major life decisions in polarized settings? We explore this question by examining how peers influenced the allegiances of West Point cadets during the American Civil War. Leveraging quasi-random variations in the proportion of cadets from Free States, we analyze how cadets’ decisions about which army to join depended on the composition of their peers. We have three main findings. First, there was a strong and significant peer effect: a higher proportion of classmates from Free States significantly increased the likelihood that cadets from Slave States joined the Union Army. Second, the peer effect varies with geography, most notably with the slave population share in cadets’ home states or counties, and with cadets’ own slave ownership in 1860. Third, peer effects were amplified by shared experiences such as having served together in the Mexican-American War, continuous military service, and belonging to the same cohort, suggesting that sustained interaction is important.